Article by M. Davar
A direct U.S. military offensive in support of Israel against Iran would mark one of the most consequential decisions in modern American foreign policy. Far from being a limited operation, such a move could unleash a wave of instability that reverberates far beyond the Middle East, shaking global markets, upending diplomatic alliances, and redrawing the region’s already fragile power structure.
While the calls for deterrence and military readiness grow louder in Washington and Tel Aviv, the weight of history serves as a cautionary tale. Armed conflicts, once ignited, rarely unfold as expected. The United States never intended to stay in Afghanistan for nearly two decades. The invasion of Iraq led to a bloody and destabilizing aftermath that far exceeded its initial scope. And Russia, confident it could overrun Ukraine in weeks, remains bogged down in a grinding war now entering its fourth year. The same illusions of control and predictability would likely evaporate in a conflict involving Iran, one of the most strategically positioned and militarily entrenched nations in the region.
This unfolding crisis demands careful scrutiny, not only because of the military implications but because of what is at stake economically and politically on a global scale. A war between Iran and the U.S., whether initiated directly or through escalation via Israel, would not be a short-term campaign. It would be a protracted confrontation with ripple effects across energy markets, regional alliances, and domestic politics in capitals around the world.
To fully grasp the stakes, one must first understand the two nations at the heart of this collision, Israel and Iran. Both wield significant influence. Both are deeply embedded in the strategic architecture of the Middle East. And both see the coming conflict not merely as a tactical contest, but as a fight over national survival, legitimacy, and regional dominance.
Let’s begin by understanding the two nations, both powerful and deeply entrenched in the geopolitics of the region.
Iran: A Nation Rooted in History and Strategy
With a population exceeding 90 million and a landmass stretching over 1.65 million square kilometers, Iran stands as one of the largest and most influential countries in the Middle East. Roughly 5.5 times the size of Italy, it is the 17th largest nation in the world by area, rich in both natural resources and civilizational history. Its people are ethnically diverse, with Persians (Fars) forming the majority, and significant minority populations including Azeris, Gilakis, Mazandaranis, Kurds, Arabs, Balochs, and Turkmen. This complex social fabric, shaped over thousands of years, has weathered internal tensions and political upheaval while maintaining a strong national identity.
Despite its ongoing domestic struggles marked by dissatisfaction with the clerical regime and periodic unrest, Iran has one of the most educated populations in the region. Its literacy rate is close to 90 percent, and Iranian women, though often constrained by political limitations, participate fully in professional life, contributing in fields ranging from medicine and science to education and politics.
Geographically, Iran holds a strategic position that cannot be overstated. Its southern border lies along the Persian Gulf, and it exercises de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor through which more than 20 percent of the world’s oil supply flows. Any conflict involving Iran immediately triggers concerns about energy security, global shipping, and the stability of oil markets.
Militarily, Iran is not a peer of the United States or Israel in terms of conventional technology, but it has become a formidable force through its investment in asymmetric warfare. It possesses the most extensive and diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, with capabilities ranging from short-range rockets to long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, U.S. military bases, and cities across the Gulf. In addition, it has rapidly expanded its drone program and developed naval tactics that rely on speedboats, submarines, and mine-laying to challenge more advanced fleets in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf.
Iran also maintains a non-military nuclear program, which Western intelligence agencies have long viewed with suspicion. Although Tehran insists its nuclear ambitions are peaceful, fears persist particularly in Israel that it is inching toward weapons capability. That concern continues to fuel regional tension and Western pressure.
On the global stage, Iran has strategically aligned itself with Russia and China. Its supply of drones to Moscow for use in Ukraine has deepened its military and economic relationship with the Kremlin, while Beijing, Iran’s largest oil customer, has signed long-term economic cooperation agreements with Tehran. Though China is not a military ally in the traditional sense, its dependence on Iranian energy makes it a potential diplomatic shield and possibly even an indirect supporter in the event of a broader regional war. Meanwhile, Iran has made recent efforts to normalize relations with its Arab neighbors across the Gulf, a move that reflects a growing awareness of the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Internally, the Islamic Republic faces deep dissatisfaction with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rule, particularly among younger generations and urban populations who seek greater freedoms and democratic reform. But Iran’s history reveals a unifying pattern: in the face of external threats, the population regardless of their stance on the regime often rallies around the nation. A cultural heritage dating back nearly 5,000 years fosters a deeply rooted connection to the land, and repeated confrontations with foreign powers have hardened national pride.
Israel: A Technological Powerhouse in a Volatile Region
Israel, a small but highly advanced nation in the heart of the Middle East, stands at the center of mounting regional tensions. With a population nearing 10 million, the country is home to roughly 7.2 million Jews and a significant Arab minority that includes Muslims, Christians, Druze, Circassians, and Armenians. Beyond its borders, another five million Palestinians live under Israeli occupation in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, adding complexity to the country’s demographic and political challenges.
Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has rapidly transformed into one of the world’s most technologically sophisticated states. Despite spanning just over 20,000 square kilometers, excluding the occupied territories it has emerged as a global leader in sectors ranging from electronics and cybersecurity to precision agriculture and military defense.
Israel’s military capabilities are among the most advanced anywhere. Its air force, bolstered by American-supplied F-35, F-16, and F-15 fighter jets, is widely considered the most powerful in the Middle East. The country’s multi-layered missile defense system which includes the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow systems has been tested repeatedly in real-world conditions and is under constant refinement. Israeli pilots, trained to world-class standards, operate under a doctrine emphasizing speed, precision, and technological superiority.
In cyberspace, Israel is equally formidable. It is widely credited with leading the development of Stuxnet, the sophisticated cyberattack that disrupted Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Though Israel maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, it is believed to possess between 80 and 200 nuclear warheads an undeclared but understood strategic deterrent.
The United States remains Israel’s closest ally, providing billions of dollars in annual military aid and crucial diplomatic cover on the world stage. Washington also shares intelligence with Israel and coordinates closely on matters of regional security. European countries such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom maintain strong defense and intelligence relationships with Israel, though they often express greater caution about preemptive military action or escalation. The normalization of relations with Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain through the Abraham Accords marked a diplomatic milestone, signaling a realignment of interests in the region, even if it stops short of military collaboration.
Yet beneath Israel’s technological prowess and strategic alliances lies a deeply polarized political climate. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving leader, remains a deeply divisive figure. He has built his political career on a hardline stance toward Iran, frequently warning that Tehran’s nuclear ambitions pose an existential threat to the Jewish state. However, his time in the office has been marred by controversy, both at home and abroad. Facing corruption charges and widespread domestic protests over his judicial reform efforts, Netanyahu has also come under international scrutiny. He has been accused by the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice of war crimes related to Israel’s military actions in Gaza, allegations he denies but which have further strained Israel’s global image. While the U.S. and several European allies continue to back his government, much of the international community has grown increasingly critical of Israel’s policies, particularly its handling of the Palestinian conflict.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of IranOnline.com.