Article by M. Davar
As tensions in the Middle East escalate, it is becoming increasingly clear that a potential war between Iran and US-Israel would not be a limited or localized conflict. The military and geopolitical dynamics involved are simply too vast, too interconnected, and too combustible to be contained within the borders of a single nation or between two adversaries. Unlike the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, or even the ongoing war in Ukraine, a conflict with Iran would ignite a chain reaction across the region and possibly the globe. The scale and intensity of such a war should not be underestimated. Iran is not a disjointed militia or a failed state. It is a nation of over 90 million people, with formidable military capabilities, deeply embedded alliances, and a long history of asymmetrical warfare. Even a short war would be catastrophic. Unlike the drawn-out engagements of the past, this one would escalate quickly, with both sides fully capable and willing to inflict maximum damage. The war in Ukraine, already devastating, would pale in comparison.
Recent developments highlight volatility. President Trump, just days ago focused on economic competition with China, is now contemplating a direct military strike on Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a rare moment of diplomatic restraint, tried to distance the U.S. from Israel’s recent surprise attack on Iran. That brief moment of hesitation has already given way to escalation: the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group is being deployed to join the USS Carl Vinson in what appears to be preparation for full-scale war. This rapid shift in U.S. foreign policy, turning on a dime from tariffs to troop deployments should alarm anyone paying attention. Wars that begin suddenly, with unclear objectives and poorly calculated risks, often end in long-term chaos. History is replete with examples of military planners who won initial battles but failed to predict the consequences. On May 1, 2003, President George W. Bush famously declared “Mission Accomplished” aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. It would take nearly two decades, thousands of American lives, and trillions of dollars before the U.S. withdrew from Iraq, leaving behind a fractured nation and a power vacuum still being filled by militant forces.
A war with Iran risks repeating and magnifying that mistake. The region is a powder keg of alliances and rivalries. Any strike could pull in other powers, including Russia, which has military and economic ties to Iran, and possibly even China and Pakistan. The U.S., already overstretched and politically divided, may find itself isolated and unable to control the broader consequences.
The economic fallout alone would be catastrophic. Global oil markets would spiral into chaos. Shipping lanes could be shut down. Refugee flows would surge, further destabilizing already fragile nations. Energy prices would soar. Mass casualties, infrastructure devastation, and regional political upheaval would follow. And for what? No matter how this war ends, whether in a so-called victory or a negotiated truce the region will not return to normal. Countries will be reduced to rubble. Civilians, especially women and children, will bear the brunt. And the pain, trauma, and memory of destruction will not fade. The scars will remain festering until the next war reignites them.
At a time like this, a wise statesman must resist the urge to act out of vengeance, ideology, or political gain. Trump should realize that there is no room for cowboy diplomacy. The United States has neither the strategic depth nor the public will for another twenty-year quagmire. It cannot afford to waste trillions of taxpayer dollars and sacrifice thousands of young lives for a war that was neither provoked nor necessary. Instead, the priority must be diplomacy. An immediate ceasefire. Engagement with regional powers. A multilateral effort to de-escalate. Peace will not be easy, but it is far less costly than war. This is not just a regional crisis. It is a test of global leadership, wisdom, and restraint. The world is watching. Let us not fail this test again.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of IranOnline.com.