In mid-October 2022, U.S. and Ukrainian officials raised alarms over Russian claims that Kyiv was planning to deploy a “dirty bomb” an accusation Ukraine vehemently denied, countering that the Kremlin might be preparing a false-flag operation. Recent developments in the Middle East, however, have shifted global attention to Iran’s military capabilities and strategic deterrent options, particularly after Israel’s unprecedented strikes on the Natanz nuclear facility, which went uncondemned by the international community. This geopolitical shift may now be influencing Tehran’s calculus as it weighs its response.
According to May 2024 IAEA reports, Iran currently possesses 408.6 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity and 9,247.6 kilograms at lower purity levels. While Iranian officials maintain their nuclear program is peaceful, this stockpile represents significant strategic potential. Such quantities could theoretically support various radiological applications should Iran choose to pursue them. It is important to note that retrofitting existing drones and missiles for such purposes is a relatively simple task, achievable in a matter of hours.
The concept of radiological dispersal devices commonly called “dirty bombs” has gained attention in security circles. Though not nuclear weapons, these devices could serve as potential deterrents given their ability to create area-denial effects. Iran’s advanced missile and drone capabilities provide multiple delivery options, presenting complex challenges that surpass even Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems.
Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities have established a troubling precedent. The lack of meaningful international response to these strikes may lead Tehran to conclude that existing norms regarding nuclear deterrence no longer apply. This perception could influence Iran’s strategic decision-making as it considers its own response options.
Iran’s potential capabilities create a paradox for the region. The same delivery systems that could transport conventional payloads might alternatively carry radiological materials. Should Iran launch radiological drones or missiles toward Israel, transit nations like Jordan would likely refuse interception attempts, as no government would willingly accept radioactive fallout over its territory. Israel would then face an impossible choice: allow the payload to reach its target or intercept it midair, risking the dispersal of contamination across a much wider populated area.
In short, radiological bombs put Israel, regional military sites and oil production facilities in the region on notice. Such weapons could be seen as a “poor man’s nuclear bomb” one that, in certain scenarios, may carry strategic weight comparable to Israel’s own nuclear arsenal. The current situation underscores the importance of diplomatic engagement. Given the amount of enriched uranium Iran possesses, its stockpile should be considered a deterrent against maximum pressure campaigns and demands for total surrender.
As tensions escalate, all parties face increasingly constrained options. Iran’s capabilities suggest that traditional approaches to regional security may require reevaluation. Rather than dismissing Tehran’s potential responses, a clear-eyed assessment of mutual vulnerabilities might better serve stability than further escalation. In this complex environment, measured diplomacy may prove more effective than confrontational posturing or “cowboy diplomacy.” The alternative, a cycle of action and reaction with unpredictable consequences, serves no nation’s long-term interests in the region.
Article by M. Davar
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of IranOnline.com.